As it appears the COVID-19 crisis in the U.S. is slowing, perhaps flattening or peaking and on the verge of declining, there has been a lot of discussion around when and how the country should return to “business as usual.” President Donald Trump says deciding when to reopen the country is “the biggest decision I’ve ever had to make.”
Of course, this has been accompanied with the typical chorus of Monday-morning- quarterbacks who are ceaseless Trump opponents. I plan to address that in an upcoming article. Disregarding that for now I will offer my views trusting that the American people who, led by the Trump administration, had achieved the greatest economy in world history prior to the COVID-19 nightmare, will likewise make the best decision on reopening the country.
A Smarter New Business Model or a Return to Greedy Business as Usual?
It seems like a no-brainer to agree with President Trump that it’s desirable for U.S. business to reopen as soon as possible. The key question remaining though is “When?”. For now, I’m trusting that the President is getting this right, being courageous while taking into full consideration the advice of the task force he has put together.
Although Trump is a much smarter business man than I am, I’m not so confident that U.S. business will experience the “V-shaped economic recovery that the President says he expects. Billionaire entrepreneur Mark Cuban, who is a part of the President’s task force, has a different view. He says, “I have no doubt in my mind that we’ll come back and be stronger than ever. But it’s not going to happen immediately.” I’m more in agreement with Cuban’s position and even more so, I agree with him that taking “baby steps” in reopening U.S. business is a superior approach.
Cuban says, “People aren’t going to just venture outside. They’re not going to go to large gatherings. They’re not going to feel confident right off the bat. There’s going to be a lot of trepidation. And that concern is going to lead to people holding back on spending money.” I agree with this reasoning. I believe we should expect U.S. business to rebound more gradually. In addition to that, I think U.S. business should capitalize on its current downtime and coming gradual recovery by preparing to move to a smarter new business model.
In order for U.S. business people to get an understanding of the the smarter new business model I have in mind, I would first ask them to take a look at their current volume of customers. For the most part, that is at or near zero. With that in mind, it’s understandable that businesses whose customers have been absent would want to crowd in as many customers as possible as soon as possible. But, though greed may be natural, often, it isn’t smart. In addition to understanding what Mark Cuban says about customers “… trepidation … And that concern is going to lead to people holding back on spending money”, they should recognize that, through their greed, they could reignite the pandemic and return their customer volume to the bottom. In order to illustrate what I see as a smarter new business model going forward, let me exemplify the way I see it applying to a couple of specific market segments.
Restaurants and Food Services
This market segment has been hit very hard by the COVID-19 nightmare. No doubt, many restaurant owners long for the days when their dining rooms were filled and crowds of people were sitting at the entry way, waiting for seating to become available. As I said earlier, it’s understandable for businesses to want to regain as many customers as possible as soon as possible but having those longed for days as their goal doesn’t seem to be smart. It seems to me that finding a way to reopen in a way that minimizes trepidation and moves towards a new way to maximize the customer base is much smarter. Here’s how that could look:
- All employees wear masks and gloves and minimize direct contact with customers.
- Dining rooms are set up in a way that provides appropriate social distancing.
- All seating is handled via reservation. If immediate seating is unavailable, customers can set a reservation for later or order meals to be picked up or be referred to a partner restaurant.
- Ordering and paying can be done electronically from dining room tables using systems that are already available.
- Hand sanitizing available at each table.
- Instead of having servers bring meals to the tables, at least at first, meals could be picked up and brought to the tables by the customers themselves.
Since I’m not a member of the National Restaurant Association, I don’t really know all the ins and outs of the food service industry. I do know that there are many more aspects of reopening that restaurateurs will need to consider. And, I know there are restaurant types that can’t fit this model. A good example here is buffet style restaurants like Souplantation/Sweet Tomatoes. Additionally, there are restaurant types like Sonic who are kind of ahead of the game because they already offer service to diners in their parked cars. With all this understood, I think the above outline can serve as a good starting point for the majority of restaurants.
Sports and Entertainment
I have tickets to a Dodgers/Angels game in July. I bought the tickets early when Spring Training was still going on and the game was nearly sold out then. Although I’m still clinging to the thread of a hope that I’ll get to go to this game, I have to admit that I don’t relish the thought of sitting elbow-to-elbow with over 45,000 others, to standing in line with them for food and beverage and especially to sharing the restroom facilities with them. If a rabid Angels fan like me has this sort of “trepidation” about spending time on the hallowed ground of Angels Stadium of Anaheim, I’m confident that many others feel likewise about going to the Big A, as well as other sports and entertainment venues. Here’s my suggestion for how to improve on this, using the Big A as an example.
First of all, the “big bucks” for MLB come from TV. So, step one should be to start getting some televised games played, even if they are in empty stadiums. Although I’ve heard of the possibility of starting a season with all games being played in one state – e.g. Arizona – that has low COVID-19 stats, I don’t favor that idea. Certainly that could be done because fan seating capacity wouldn’t be a factor and that would make more than enough suitable ball fields available. My guess is that one aspect that makes this idea appealing is that it minimizes the exposure of teams to different environments in traveling, dining, housing, etc. My sense is that these considerations can be controlled sufficiently using MLB stadiums while limiting the range of related environments. And, this would set the stage for ways to, again, have fans in attendance.
So, what is the best way to get back to having fans in attendance at the Big A? Whether I (or you) like it or not, I think this has to begin with limiting the crowd size. In addition to that not being ideal for fans, no doubt, it’s not desirable for the businesses that rely on the Big A for their revenue. But, I would remind them, having some fans in the stadium is a great improvement over the number of fans in attendance today … ZERO! Certainly a venue with a seating capacity of over 45,000 has ample room to accommodate schemes that offer appropriate social distancing for the fans.
While my suggestion may work well for the Angels and Angels fans, what about those other businesses that rely on the Big A as the source of their revenue? The truth is that there are some whose businesses will no longer fit the new smarter business model necessitated by the COVID-19 experience. I believe, though, that most of these other businesses can make changes that allow their businesses to survive and eventually, to thrive.
First, lets look at businesses that are necessary for getting fans to and into he stadium. Tickets can already be purchased online. Ticket-taking can be done at the parking lot gate with an adjacent pedestrian portal. Security screening would be a challenge but, as a start, fans could be prohibited from taking anything in to the stadium besides their clothing.
Once fans have found their way to their seats, what about food/beverage and restroom use? Certainly, phone apps can be developed for each stadium that would allow fans to order and pay for food and beverages that could be delivered to their seats. Restroom use isn’t quite as simple but I’m sure appropriate schemes can be developed for managing the number of people allowed in a restroom at a time and appropriately spacing fans who are waiting in a restroom line.
Just as I said about the Restaurant and Food Service industry, I don’t really know all the ins and outs of the Sports and Entertainment business. Certainly, there are many more aspects of reopening that their executives will need to consider. But I do think my ideas here offer some good examples of creative ways to get our Sports and Entertainment venues reopened.
Other for-Profit and Nonprofit Organizations
Surely, the suggestions I’ve offered won’t map to the needs of all organization types. But many of them are in a similar position to the market segments I’ve addressed, to “make lemonade out of lemons.” Another obvious one is the airline industry. For a very long time, their customer base has been begging for more legroom. Here’s a great opportunity to get people flying again and to give them the product they’ve been longing for at the same time. Anyway, getting this right for all market segments is going to require a great deal of creativity on the part of our “Captains of Industry.” I do hope, though, that instead of taking the approach of greedily trying to return to the old business as usual as quickly as possible, they will take a smarter approach to building a new business model that is far superior in the long term.
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